Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Esprit's (330.HK) delusional plan?

Market cap of HK$14B (peaked over $140B in 2007).

September quarter SSS falling in high single digits. CFO resigned due to 'personal reasons'. Closing 80 non profitable stores.

Plan to spend additional $18.5B in capex and opex in marketing, upgrading designs and stores in the next 4 years. With this spending they expect to expand operating margin by 15%.

All this in the face of increased competition from H&M, Forever 21, GAP,... probability of slowdowns in the European consumer spending and in China where they expect to double sales.

Considering 10year annual run rate earnings of ~$4B Expect more plan tweaking as the results of their 'transformation' comes in the next year or two as they try and nail a fickle discretionary fashion market.

Hero or Zero? Probabilities trend more to Zero, residual value in the brand. Check back in 6months.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Australian proposal to tax efficiency

"The nine-person working group, set up by Mr Swan after the tax summit, is examining a proposal known as Allowance for Corporate Equity, which would apply no tax to the portion of corporate profits necessary to get a reasonable return on equity. Most companies - especially manufacturers - fail to meet that hurdle and would pay no corporate tax.

Banks and mining companies make a much greater return on equity and so would be liable for the super tax on the excess portion of their earnings. A working group member, John Freebairn from Melbourne University, told the conference the super tax rate could be as high as 40 or 50 per cent. He nominated McDonald's and KFC as examples of companies able to make larger than normal profits because of the power of their brands."

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/swan-tax-shakeup-targets-super-rich-20111205-1ofj9.html#ixzz1fiQQSP6i

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Chaoda dumping Asian Citrus shares

Selling out 100 million shares @ $4.66 because ...


The reason for selling is because of "market volatility"??!! Selling out at near all time lows?

Chaoda reported (end 2010) having ~$2b in cash and supposedly generates ~$3.5b cash from operations is raising cash for general working capital? They have another ~66m shares of Asian Citrus left at $4.66/share (will be much less after tomorrow) is worth another ~$300m.

$2b in cash + $750m in Asian Citrus shares = $2.75b
Market Cap of Chaoda is $3.62b and not much debt.

Smells like desperate cash raising to fill in some holes..

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Sino Forest "Not the "Near Total Fraud""

Sino Forest says .. ."We can categorically say Sino-Forest is not the “near total fraud” and “Ponzi scheme” as alleged by Muddy Waters"

To see what a difficult task the Advisors to the Independent Committee had:
- Over 300 bank accounts, only checked 28 of them that contained 81% of the funds. Couldn't check the rest for overdrafts
- Forestry Bureau(s) not willing to confirm agreements since they may not be legal, or they may even be on SF's payroll.
- Third party AI and supplies not willing to provide any information
- Contracts based on verbal agreements and personal relationships
- Internal Sino Forest systems in a mess. Staff using third party email addresses and documents not backed up or deleted.
- Uncooperative management.
- and so on..

Given the extensive and amusing list of "challenges" the IC had in their investigation, Sino Forest management must be awarded top marks for creating such a positive spin in their release, which is certainly entertaining but not very reassuring to shareholders.

Interim report from the Advisors to the Independent Committee.

The ex Chairman/CEO/Founder Allen Chan and Mr Bowland an independent director and member of the 3 person team looking into the fraud allegations must have resigned for no reason at all.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

HK finest running brothel

Discipline in those sensitive places.

ICAC arrested 5 of the finest who were running a brothel over 2 floors in a Kwun Tong building. The finest spokesman said, ".. officers should not visit sensitive places when they are off duty" or "They would face disciplinary action..".


Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Wanted: First Natural Fujian Fujitives (1076.HK)

Thieves wanted by the SFC - Dead or alive, preferably the former....

The SFC is trying to contact these people who it believes have information relevant to a current enquiry. If you know where they are or have information concerning them, please contact the SFC at (852) 2231 1000 or write toleadsplease@sfc.hk.

Name: Yeung Chung Lung (楊宗龍)
Nationality: Chinese
Sex: Male
Date of birth/ age: 7 September 1952
Place of Birth: China

Descriptive Information:
He was the Chairman and Executive Director of First Natural Foods Holdings Ltd (HK listed stock code 1076, now in provisional liquidation) until his office was vacated on 27 August 2009.

The 2007 annual report of First Natural Foods Holdings Ltd shows that he was a member of the Fujian Province Fuqing City Committee of Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (政治協商會議福清市委員會) and the Vice-president of the Fujian Province City General Chamber of Commerce (福建省福州市工商聯合會).

He is the father and father-in-law of Yang Le and Ni Chao Peng respectively.

Yeung is believed to be in Mainland China.


Name: Yang Le (楊樂)
Nationality: Chinese
Sex: Male
Date of birth/ age: Around 35 years old

Descriptive Information:
He was the Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of First Natural Foods Holdings Ltd (HK listed stock code 1076, now in provisional liquidation) from May 2001 to December 2008. He is the son of Yeung Chung Lung. Yang is believed to be in Mainland China.


Name: Ni Chao Peng (倪朝鵬)
Nationality: Chinese
Sex: Male
Date of birth/ age: Around 37 years old

Descriptive Information:
He was the Executive Director of First Natural Foods Holdings Ltd (HK listed stock code 1076, now in provisional liquidation) from May 2001 to December 2008. He is the son-in-law of Yeung Chung Lung. Ni is believed to be in Mainland China.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

O Chaoda, where art thou?

Annual report 6 weeks overdue.

Why would a few anonymous, disparaged reports of fraud drive one of largest agricultural companies into a lengthy suspension of trading? No idea where Mr Kwok Ho would be but a high probability that when trading restarts, along with the release of earnings, shorts will be burnt.

Why? The time in suspension would be spent on a cash gathering exercise to reassure the auditors that cash is really there. Borrowing on the underground, moving cash around, producing 'books' showing revenues and calling on favors. Weak shorts will be burnt, good time for longs to exit, stronger shorts will survive.

Wouldn't surprise if the chairman conveniently disappears.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

PYE 0577.HK engineers entering film business

The board of Paul Y. Engineering are bored with pocket lining engineers and want to hang out with actresses. Now these engineers are intelligent and they intimately know actresses are attracted either with looks/charm, or money and promises of fame. The later options are decidedly easier so what better than to start your own film company!

Original company activities: building construction, civil engineering, development management, project management, facilities and asset management.

New actress attracting idea:


Note: Third Avenue has a 10.72% holding in PYI. Given Marty Whitman's views on being an "Outside Passive Investor", and his reluctance to engage in any corporate activism, expect him to liquidate this position.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Anonymous on Chaoda

Besides issues highlighted here before (lies, incessant fund raising, insider trades, auditors). New stuff on the bogus branding company they use, more detail on Mr Ho's fertilizer company which turns out to be a heap of shit (over 3 BILLION RMB turnover using only $2k worth of fixed assets).

And the SFC/HKEX? Too little too late.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Chaoda Down 26%. Suspended

Awaiting "price sensitive information".

Considering the drastic crash before the suspension, some bad news has leaked. This will either be permanent or some announcement of a desperate buyback attempt by the management to prop up the sandcastle.

Update... bye bye Chaoda.


Chinese IPOs to hit record in Germany

Paraphrasing the laws of themodynamics: shit will sink to the lowest level of the toilet bowl (unless it floated in which case it will be on the HKEX).

Spot the dichotomy:

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Pan Sino 0502.HK

A coffee trader in Jarkarta listed on the HKex casino. Lots of cash, trading below book, increasing revs and profits. Last traded at 0.58 with 0.40 in cash/share.

Only problem is fraud resulting in suspension of the shares in 2007. Now the HKex is going to delist it.

What enforcement actions are the SFC/Hkex taking? ... Yes, they're heading out for their 2 hour dim sim session.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Totalitarian HK


The newly appointed Commissioner of Police, the angry bald fat dwarf (Andy Tsang), who true to his promise of toughness, is on a mission of subjugation and violence against the citizens of HK. Men in black can now be seen in public enforcing arbitrary "core security zones", randomly detaining "threats" and obstructing journalists. None of this of course is commanded indirectly or otherwise from the Panda from Beijing.

The HKex/SFC could benefit from a bit of Angry Fat Bald Dwarfism, starting with the carting off it's incompetent management.


Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Increased Complaints about HK Police

This is where the cops can legally stop any citizen on the streets and perform a search on the pretense of investigating a crime or if they suspect a crime is about to be committed. They can then plant evidence.


Saturday, June 18, 2011

Donald Tsang and HK Property

This dangerous clown decides he wants to maintain a free market economy yet only wants to partially destroy the property market.

"We will do more to slow it down," he said. "But we believe in the market, though. We don't want to do anything that would destroy the market completely."

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Hkex's CEO Charles Li Delusional

Matters in the HKEX are obviously dire when the esteemed CEO of the whorehouse manages to utter gems like this...

"The U.S.-listed Chinese companies running into accounting problems would not have been able to list in Hong Kong, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (0388.HK) Chief Executive Officer Charles Li told cable network CNBC on Friday."


The fool should take some time to read about the frauds in his whorehouse happening under his watch.... Ocean Grand, Fuji, Chaoda, First Natural, Akai, ...

He follows it up with more pungent garbage:

"He added that while the U.S. exchanges are disclosure-based, the Hong Kong Exchange is prescriptive, requiring companies to do certain things before they list"

How was the IPO application of Resourcehouse approved when it had never had profits?

Monday, June 6, 2011

Resourcehouse cancelled, Chaoda plumbing depths


As expected Resourcehouse IPO has been pulled.

Chaoda, despite the apologists and the frantic share buybacks by it's management continues to sink. It wouldn't be presumptuous to say ALL public Chinese companies are fraudulent, and US companies would have a certain degree, however the level of fraud in Chinese companies is high. When investing in China, assume there is fraud and check the Margin of Safety:

- Is it a large enough company to garner enough attention from the government?
- Will management fraud, result in bullets to their heads?
- Will the company survive such fraud?

The list of Chinese companies that have been decimated by fraud with the management escaping scott free is long and getting longer... First Natural Holdings, Fuji, China Forestry, Yunan Green-Land, ..

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Life is cheap in HK

An airline pilot. Leung Chiu-yu (Cathay Pacific) who killed a four-year-old boy on a pedestrian crossing was fined HK$4,000 yesterday.

Judge: Kevin Browne

Friday, June 3, 2011

The HKex whorehouse

Compromising what little integrity the HK market has by exempting Resourcehouse which has never made a profit (probably never will) from it's own rules...

Under rule 8.05(1)(a), in order to meet the existing profit test, a new applicant must have an adequate trading record. This means that an applicant, or its group (excluding any associated companies and other entities whose results are recorded in the applicant’s financial statements using the equity method of accounting), as the case may be, must satisfy the following requirement:
“a trading record of not less than three financial years (see rule 4.04) during which the profit attributable to shareholders must, in respect of the most recent year, be not less than HK$20,000,000 and, in respect of the two preceding years, be in aggregate not less than HK$30,000,000. The profit mentioned above should exclude any income or loss of the issuer, or its group, generated by activities outside the ordinary and usual course of its business;”

Resource house drops IPO price 30%

From $4.48~$4.93 to $3.45

Will be surprising if it's fully subscribed. Expect a 15% drop on open. A good short.

Friday, May 27, 2011

Longtop Auditor's letter

As always, cash is not cash in China. Fake cash, crooked bank officials, local authorities,..

Now how much of Chaoda's $3.0b rmb is actually there?

"As part of the process for auditing the Company’s financial statements for the year ended 31 March 2011, we determined that, in regard to bank confirmations, it was appropriate to perform follow up visits to certain banks. These audit steps were recently performed and identified a number of very serious defects including: statements by bank staff that their bank had no record of certain transactions; confirmation replies previously received were said to be false; significant differences in deposit balances reported by the bank staff compared with the amounts identified in previously received confirmations (and in the books and records of the Group); and significant bank borrowings reported by bank staff not identified in previously received confirmations (and not recorded in the books and records of the Group).

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Chaoda 0682.hk chart -24%

Yep, that dip corresponds to the company issuing a statement 'clarifying' an article in Next Magazine. The article basically says that land is missing, in it's investigation 5000mu turned out to be 500mu, covered in rubbish and in no condition to grow anything. Weather was unsuitable and land had been untouched for years. Supposedly technologically advanced equipment turned out to be old tractors, and (broken) scythes.

Ho the chairman purchases 1m shares. Chaoda repurchases 2.2m. Files on the same day in an obvious (or desperate) show of confidence.



Resourcehouse IP cancelled/postponed for 3rd time

Couldn't line up enough suckers..? From the prospectus, it has no operations, and has a non binding letter of funding intent from China Exim Bank. The mama-sans, Msses HKex and SFC as usual, introducing the latest talent to HK's bordello of stock markets.

"As the company requires additional time for certain commercial arrangement, it has decided to postpone the expected timetable for issuing the prospectus,”

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/palmer-yanks-hk-ipo-for-a-third-time-20110526-1f5fd.html#ixzz1NQYRROFO

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Chaoda reaping the suckers

Same old story. Waits till there is a pop in the share price then raises more capital ($200m bonds).

If successful, the agricultural giant, which has been criticised by analysts for paying too much money for farmland that remains idle, will have raised US$771 million in share and bond sales during the past two years.


Chaoda, which did not respond to emailed questions, said in mail to potential investors it would spend the proceeds from its planned bond sale on expanding its production base and infrastructure.

The company's shares closed at HK$4.89 - a bargain-basement price of 4.5 times forecast earnings.

On March 31, before Chaoda announced its latest fund-raising, analysts at Macquarie accused the company of spending the money it made from its agricultural operations on an "enormous and growing land bank that does not produce revenues".

Macquarie analysts Jake Lynch and Jamie Zhou said the cash Chaoda had raised from regular stock and bond sales "continues to sit on the balance sheet".

In its last set of annual accounts, Chaoda said it had more than 2 billion yuan (HK$2.38 billion) in net cash.

Macquarie estimated Chaoda used only 24 per cent of its land for growing fruit, vegetables or grains, adding the company had never explained in its annual reports what it did with the rest.

There was "no transparency on 76 per cent of the land on the balance sheet", it said.

"The raw fact is that this land generates no revenues now and management cannot tell us when they expect the revenues to commence."

Chaoda, which was founded in 1997 by Kwok Ho, has regularly been mired in controversy since its Hong Kong flotation in 2000.

The company says it is China's largest vegetable grower. But some investors and analysts say this is impossible to prove because the mainland has no formal registry for agricultural land.

In 2002, big four auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers said it could not endorse Chaoda's annual results, and resigned.

The farming firm replaced PwC with the much-smaller CCIF and Baker Tilly, which both stepped down in 2007. It is now audited by mid-sized BDO.

Since 2002, Kwok has gradually reduced his ownership of the company by arranging regular issues of new shares.

The company's chief financial officer, Andy Chan Chi-po, has now sold all his stock, according to Macquarie.

Monday, April 25, 2011

46 companies permanently suspended on HKEX

The HK SFC as incompetent as ever....

"As of March 31, there were 46 companies whose stock has been halted for more than three months.

These include many that have not traded for over a year, with some cases stretching back longer.

Hong Kong has a long code of conduct for listed companies, known as the listing rules. But no Hong Kong government body or regulator has the power to levy criminal penalties or fines on company bosses who choose not to release accounts. In Britain, the Financial Services Authority can impose unlimited fines, while in Australia, the Director of Public Prosecutions has the authority to recommend jail terms for very serious breaches of disclosure requirements.

But when Hong Kong businessmen or mainland entrepreneurs fail to disclose important information, they can relax in the knowledge that a halt in share trading is probably the worst thing that will happen to them.

The result is that shares in companies that keep secrets stay suspended for a very long time. Unsurprisingly, getting stuck in zombie stocks for months, if not years, makes investors furious, as well as very scared.

"You know something is going horribly wrong, otherwise why would companies not publish accounts?" said Claude Tiramani, an emerging markets fund manager at Paris-based hedge fund Lutetia Capital. "But you cannot do anything about it. You cannot get your money out."

As Fraser Howie, a Singapore-based stockbroker and the author of Red Capitalism, put it: "These long-term suspensions are direct evidence the listing rules are a fig leaf, designed to make Hong Kong look well regulated when, in fact, it is not. You would not have all these immobile shares if the regulators or the government could compel companies to release information."

Stock suspensions can be costly for investors unlucky enough to hold a frozen share. If the wider stockmarket is rising, you are losing money. You cannot liquidate your position in a suspended share and put the cash in a stock that is likely to go up. The Hang Seng Index rose 58 per cent last year, so investors in Zhejiang Glass paid a big opportunity cost.

But as a spokesman for HKEx said, there is nothing the exchange operator can do.

"Shares that are subject to trading suspensions are allowed to resume trading only after the company provides sufficient information for investors to make sound investment decisions," he said. In other words, until a company agrees to publish information, shareholders' money stays stuck in a stock that cannot trade.

A spokesman for the Securities and Futures Exchange, which oversees the listing rules, did not respond to an email containing detailed questions."

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Zhejiang Glass (00739) Nationalized

The first private company to listed as a H Share, no less is crashing with fraud and burning shareholders. The China state governments are stepping in and taking it's assets. In this case burning it's biggest shareholder the IFC a member of the World Bank Group.

Lasted traded at $2.48 with market cap of HKD$955m. Suspended trading on 20100503.

Last report 2009 (interim):

Net Assets of $2.79b
Interest bearing debt : $5.3b
Cash: $63m

What is Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission doing? ... Nothing, this is most useless and incompetent organization on the planet. Their focus it seems is on smaller, easier, local individual targets, like traders manipulating illiquid derivatives.

H Shares - China companies listed on the HK market are riddled with fraud paired with no non-existent enforcement by the SFC/HKEX, a pit covered with SFC's facade of governance, trap laid with shards of sharp bamboo spikes.


Monday, April 11, 2011

Hui Xian

SCMP's Tom Holland on Li Ka Shing's yuan based IPO. Now Hui Xian could be translated as "return first", in this case it will be making returns to the old fox Li Ka Shing first...

Lots of noise about it based in yuan, but as Tom's points out, it doesn't matter what currency the IPO is in as the assets are in China and priced in the Chinese environment. Each share represents a 'share' of the assets and what currency is used to price it is moot.

According to Hui Xian's offering documents, if the shares are priced at the top of their indicative range, they will pay a dividend yield of 4 per cent.

That sounds like an attractive proposition at first. But for a real estate investment trust that plans to pay out nearly all its net earnings in dividends, it equates to a price to earnings ratio of almost 25 times.

Now, you can argue that Hui Xian's sole asset, its stake in Beijing's Oriental Plaza retail, office and hotel complex, is a mature investment with a steady, low-risk income stream, and so the offering's valuation is justified.

But the pricing still looks steep, especially when you consider that the value of Hui Xian's underlying property assets will deteriorate to zero by 2049, when its joint venture partnership in Oriental Plaza is due to expire worthless.

In contrast, Hong Kong dollar shares in the GZI real estate investment trust, which manages properties in Guangzhou, are currently priced at around 15 times earnings for an indicative yield of almost 6 per cent.

Friday, March 18, 2011

SHLD last minute pop

It's in the last minute of trading before options expiry and the $80 calls are OTM and are going to expire worthless, what to do?

The chart says it all...


Monday, February 7, 2011

China Forestry Holdings 0930.HK

IPO'd 14 months ago, suspended and needs a good forest fire to flush out the shysters.

Following the tried and tested IPO flip.. boost the numbers with extraordinary income (property revaluations), IPO the stock to suckers and cash out.

In the offering document, the company claimed that it made net profits of 339 million yuan (HK$400 million) in 2006, 783 million yuan in 2007 and 5.8 billion yuan in 2008,

If it seems too good... it stinks. You can have all this and less on the HKEX. Brought to you this time by UBS and Cazenove.